Economist. , and that the institution will present tomorrow. In this way, the Commission once again improves Spanish GDP for this year compared to what was expected just two months ago. The Community Executive already increased growth for 2021 to 5.9% in May , in projections marked by the return of optimism to the European economic horizon.
According to the document, and which may still be subject to last minute changes, the recovery will continue to gain pace next year, with a 6.3% rise in GDP. Brussels, however, cuts the growth expected for 2022 by half a point compared to what it projected in the spring forecasts.
Among the clouds that the Commission detects when it looks up, not only for the Spanish economy, it includes the variants of covid-19, such as the Delta strain, which is complicating the de-escalation in Europe.
Even so, the takeoff of the Spanish economy will continue to stand out above the rest of the European partners. Brussels expects the EU rebound to reach 4.8% this year and 4.5% next year, above the 4.2% forecast in May for 2021 and slightly higher than the 4.4% targeted then for 2022.
Our country is on the way to erase in 2022 the collapse of 11% of the GDP of last year, although this 2021 began with difficulties. The Spanish economy fell again in the first quarter by 0.4%, due to the restrictions that communities re-imposed to contain the new wave of covid-19 and the impact of the storm Filomena, which paralyzed the peninsula at the beginning of January, as indicated by the Commission in its analysis.
After this puncture, the Community Executive notes in the draft forecasts that the improvement in the health situation, the “rapid progress” with the vaccination campaign and the gradual lifting of containment measures will help to register a significant rebound of 2% this second quarter and 3.1% in the third quarter.
The summer forecasts, which will be presented tomorrow by the Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, only review the growth and inflation figures, without altering the deficit, debt or employment indicators, among others, which will be retouched again in November.
Last May, Brussels indicated that our unemployment would increase to 15.7% this year, and then fall in 2022 to around 14.4%. Regarding our public accounts, the virus shot the public debt 25 points to 120% of GDP last year.
It will start to gradually decline to 119.6% this year and 116.9% next year. The robust growth, which also surprised positively in spring, led the Commission to revise the forecast for our deficit, which will still remain at high levels this year (7.6% of GDP) and next (5.2% ).